The Maligned Speculator

Using fiction to convey facts.

Atlanta, GA

June 5, 2024

Last month, I spent three weeks suffering pneumonia. The only benefit of being out of energy and short of breath is having occasional opportunity to catch up on some reading…whenever persistent coughing didn’t impede progress. Fortunately, I was able to endure, and finally finish a book I’d long planned to enjoy.

Doug Casey observed you can say things in fiction you could never utter in non-fiction. That’s probably true. But regardless the genre, Casey’s never been shy speaking his mind.

He’s made a career, and a fortune, denouncing or defying prescribed opinions we’re expected to parrot. Casey isn’t always right. Few of us are (which is just as well; believe me, it can be a burden). But he never fails to pursue truth and provoke thought.

A Convenient Scapegoat

A half century ago, economist Walter Block wrote a provocative defense of “undefendable” activities and occupations. He argued on behalf of several dozen disreputable vocations.

On the roster of sordid professions was the maligned speculator, a convenient scapegoat for supply shortages, financial panics, price pressures, and economic collapse.

But speculators are social benefactors, not scurrilous bandits. They anticipate and alleviate politically-induced problems, profiting by providing liquidity and support to people in peril.

Doug Casey is among the best of the breed. He’s spent much of his life identifying and profiting from government distortions in countless countries around the world.

We’re conditioned to recoil when we learn someone makes money off another’s misfortune. But why?

Do we begrudge a doctor who gets wealthy treating sick patients, or the carpenter who gets rich repairing storm-ravaged homes?

Many economic exchanges occur because at least one of the parties wants to alleviate or avoid misfortune. And all commerce takes place because each person participating in a transaction expects it to make him better off.

Yet after every natural disaster or human debacle, speculators are unjustly demonized and viciously maligned…typically by politicians who made the mess or exacerbated the problem.

When the US government spent a decade wasting resources bombing Vietnamese and buttering its own bread on Americans’ backs, President Nixon defaulted on its debt by not redeeming other countries’ gold.

When the president went on TV to explain the crisis, he made a point to castigate convenient culprits. Staring at the camera, Nixon avoided the mirror. He instead blamed the “international money speculators.” He went on to say that these reprobates “thrive on crises”, and that because of this “they help to create them.”

Nixon was partly correct. Successful speculators do thrive on crises. But they rarely cause them. Yet governments usually do. It’s the one thing they’re consistently good at.

How Speculators Benefit Society

The speculator merely anticipates, recognizes, and responds to the perverted signals politicians produce. He sees these distortions and responds accordingly. And part of his risk entails absorbing the inevitable blame the actual perpetrator assigns him.

Where the government is usually the villain, the speculator is often the hero. He helps mitigate mischief the State creates. Like an entrepreneur loading up on lumber in anticipation of a hurricane, he risks his resources in expectation his services will be required. When they are, he becomes a source of salvation for those desperately in need.

He acts in this capacity unless or until the grandstanding government intervenes to prevent “gouging” or prohibit “profiteering”. Without fail, these incursions always manage to make matters worse.

“Gouging” is a derogatory term to disparage the salvific price mechanism that responsibly rations goods to those who need them most. As it does, politicians invariably react with “price controls”, a euphemism for State action that forcibly keeps those who need limited supplies from getting any at all. When inevitable shortages result, sinister speculators are again condemned.

Neither Gambler nor Investor

But as we’ve seen, speculators perform a vital service. And “good speculations”, as Doug Casey puts it, “are always low-risk ventures. Far from taking inordinate risks, speculators only go in for ‘sure things.’” Despite popular perception, speculators aren’t gamblers. Nor are they typical “investors.”

As Casey continued, “an investor risks 100% of his money in the hopes of receiving a 10% gain. A speculator risks just 10% in anticipation of earning 100%. If you are the least bit attentive, the longer-term risk/reward profile for the speculator is in an entirely different league than that of the ‘conservative’ investor.”

Where to seek these “sure thing” asymmetric speculations? Wise speculators look for distortions governments cause, then position for consequences that are economically inevitable. As George Soros (in most ways Casey’s philosophical antithesis) said, they find the trend whose premise is false, and bet against it.

To do so, they look under rocks most of the market is unwilling to lift. They seek assets that are ignored…and preferably hated…with prices depressed and trading volume low.

Acute Knowledge and Distinctive Style

In Speculator, the first novel in the “High Ground” series featuring ample action, intrigue, philosophy, and politics, Casey and co-author John Hunt depict the adventures of a couple intrepid explorers, who crave adventure and profit from calculated risks.

The tale follows the travails and triumphs of Charles Knight, who bought shares in a West African gold mining operation and traveled to the scene to assess it himself. He’s soon the target of suspicion, investigation, assassination…and romance.

The story immediately draws us in, as Knight and his new-found friend quickly learn something is amiss. For the most part, the rapid pace keeps pages turning. Reminiscent of Ayn Rand’s novels, the book weaves philosophic insights that reinforce the fabric of an engaging plot.

The writing conveys the acute knowledge and distinctive style of each author. Casey is a world-renowned philosopher, speculator, author, and businessman. He’s been to hundreds of countries, lived in dozens, and specializes in scouring “dysfunctional hellholes” for obscure opportunities. John Hunt is a pediatrician and recovering academic whose expertise lends medical credence to many scenes.

As in any action-adventure, some events feel far-fetched. But none are forced, or inherently implausible. Casey’s worldview permeates the plot, which seems based on his personal experience. And the novel resounds with his distinctive wit.

Extended Philosophic soliloquies sometimes disrupt the prose. They can seem unrealistic or out of place. But who cares? They’re quintessential Casey…so good the reader welcomes the interruption. If he doesn’t, he probably bought the wrong book, despite being the type that most needs to read it.

I’ve read Doug Casey for several decades, including an extensive array of newsletters featuring lessons and insights that never disappoint. His breakthrough books came half a century ago, with publication of The International Man in 1976 and Crisis Investing a few years later.

The latter put Casey squarely on the map. It crowned The New York Times non-fiction bestseller list for 29 consecutive weeks and was the best selling financial book of 1980.

Speculator was Casey’s first foray into fiction. After finishing it, I’m eager to read the sequels, each of which explores other unsavory occupations we’ve been conditioned to despise.

Who knows? Maybe we should. But probably not always, and certainly not reflexively. Fiction isn’t always stranger than truth. These days it seldom is.

But as Doug Casey confirmed, it’s often the best way to convey it.

JD